Small Business Confidence Is Rising, But Not for Everyone

If you only scanned the headlines, you’d think small business sentiment is soaring. According to new White House and CNBC/SurveyMonkey data, nearly half of small business owners say the economy is “excellent” or “good,” and over half expect revenue growth this year.

But dig just a little deeper, and a different picture starts to form. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, released the same week, showed a slight dip. Only 7% of owners expect better sales. And nearly one in five say taxes are their number one concern.

So, which is it? A booming outlook, or a cautious retreat?

Turns out, it’s both.

Confidence isn’t just a matter of external signals. It’s about what your business is built on. And right now, some owners have adapted, updating their tax strategy, investing in AI, and forecasting with sharper models—while others are still trying to read the winds. What is the difference between optimism and anxiety? Strategic clarity.

Not All Optimism Is Created Equal

According to the Q3 2025 CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Confidence Index, optimism is rising across most sectors. The index jumped from 51 to 56, its highest level in over a year. Forty-six percent of small business owners rated the U.S. economy as “good” or “excellent,” up from just 30% last quarter. Even traditionally skeptical groups reported improved outlooks.

There’s a story behind the data: Fifty-one percent of owners expect revenues to grow in 2025, and nearly 30% plan to hire. That’s not just optimism, it’s operational commitment. Technology also plays a role here. More than one-third (37%) of business owners say they’ve implemented AI tools in their operations, and 75% of those early adopters are already seeing positive returns.

The White House attributes some of this confidence to recent policy wins. A July 2025 press release cites the One Big Beautiful Bipartisan Bill (OBBBA) and inflation-moderation policies as key stabilizers for small businesses.

But optimism isn’t universal. And that’s exactly the point.

Why the NFIB Index Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story

At face value, the NFIB’s June 2025 Small Business Optimism Index suggests trouble. It dipped to 98.6, barely above its 51-year average, and only 7% of respondents reported expectations for higher sales.

But this isn’t a contradiction; rather, it’s a symptom of uneven adaptation.

Many business owners are still operating under assumptions that no longer apply. Inventory is one example: 12% of owners say they’re carrying too much inventory, up from 7% the month before. That might appear to be a supply problem, but it’s actually a sign of misaligned cash flow and planning.

And tax policy? It's evolving fast. Nineteen percent of owners say taxes are their top concern—not necessarily because they’re paying more, but because they’re uncertain about what applies to them. With depreciation schedules, QSBS qualifications, and SALT deduction rules shifting, many haven’t updated their playbooks to match the new rules.

This divergence in data reflects something deeper: confidence is about the broader economy, and whether your business is built to thrive in it.

Clarity Is the Competitive Edge

Owners who have recalibrated are pulling ahead. They’ve updated their tax strategies, streamlined operations, and adopted tools that let them do more with less. For them, 2025 looks promising not because it’s easy, but because it’s navigable.

Others are still in wait-and-see mode. That’s not inherently wrong, but it can be a risky approach. Relying on old metrics or waiting for complete policy clarity leaves businesses vulnerable to missed opportunities or avoidable expenses.

As NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted in June, “Uncertainty remains a significant drag on confidence.” At the time, the OBBBA hadn’t passed yet. But even with that win on the books, the takeaway holds: in a shifting landscape, clarity beats caution.

How to Increase Certainty in Uncertain Times

Confidence isn’t something you wait for, but something you build. And in 2025, it comes from strategy, not sentiment. Here’s where to focus:

• Run a tax strategy check. Confirm that your approach reflects the 2025 updates, especially regarding expenses, credits, and qualified small business stock.
• Account for processing lags. IRS refund delays are real. If you’re expecting ERC, R&D, or depreciation-related benefits, adjust your timelines.
• Evaluate inventory pressure. Holding excess stock is now more expensive. Run a leaner model tied to real demand and margin.
• Use AI where it matters. Automation doesn’t need to be flashy. Start where it saves time or improves service. Surveyed owners using AI report a positive impact.
• Track financial indicators early. Aging receivables, customer churn, vendor pricing changes—all are clues. Don’t wait until Q4 to respond.

Conclusion

Confidence in this economy isn’t about watching the data; it’s about what you do with it. As these mixed signals show, two business owners in the same environment can have completely different outlooks. Why? One has strategic clarity. The other doesn’t yet. And that difference changes everything.

‍

Sources

The White House

CNBC / SurveyMonkey Small Business Confidence Index

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

CapitalBrief

Reuters

‍